Expert talks about Iranian nuclear program

Former Special Assistant to President Clinton, Gary Samore, an expert on non-proliferation policy in South Asia, the Middle East and East Asia gave a discussion on the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program on Monday, Jan. 23 at the Wardlaw Building.

Samore’s presentation titled ‘Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program, A Challenge to the Global Nonproliferation Regime’ was part of the Southeast Roundtable on Defense (SEROD) luncheon and lecture series is housed under the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy (CISTP).

Samore is the Vice President of the Program on Global Security and Sustainability at the MacArthur Foundation. He was also the Senior Director for Non-Proliferation and Export Controls at the National Security Council from 1996 to 2000.

According to Samore, Iran has strategic reasons for pursuing its nuclear program.

“From Iran’s standpoint, with the Americans tied down by the insurgency in Iraq and with the likely emergence of a more friendly pro-Shia government in Baghdad, Tehran calculates that it has a window of opportunity to move forward with its nuclear program while Washington is distracted,” Samore said.

“Even though Iran is still years away from being able to build and operate facilities which produce large amounts of weapons-grade uranium…they’re pretty close to mastering the basic technology for gas-centrifuge machines.”

“Once they have crossed that technological threshold, it will be much more difficult to stop or to even seriously set back the program…diplomatically and even through military action,” he said.

The oil market adds to Iran’s confidence despite widespread dissent from the international community.

“In addition to the mess in Iraq, Tehran calculates that the tight international oil market protects them from serious economic sanctions because they can always threaten to retaliate by limiting oil production which would of course lead to a very dramatic increase in the price of oil,” Samore said.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who was elected in summer 2005 has invited controversy multiple times, from commenting that the Holocaust is a “myth” to pursuing the uranium enrichment program.

“According to many Iranian experts, the hard-liners around [Ahmadinejad] might actually welcome a confrontation with the international community over the Iran nuclear issue because that will allow them to rally national support for the program, and it will allow them to shift Iran away from an orientation toward better relations with the European countries, toward the West, toward closer ties with the East,” Samore said.

Samore argued that the best way to counter the Iranian threat of pursuing its nuclear program is to build a strong opposing international coalition composed of the great powers.

So far, the Bush Administration has raised three objections to entering multi-lateral negotiations with Iran.

The officials argued that any engagement with Iran will help to legitimize the current government and therefore undercut US efforts to try to encourage democratic reform in Iran.

Also, Samore said officials claimed that the US using some of its inducements to seal a nuclear deal would undercut US leverage to pressure Iran [on] other issues, like Iran’s support for terrorism.

“Finally, people from the Bush Administration argue that Iran is not really serious about making any nuclear deal that would require it to give up its nuclear weapons option and that Iran is likely to cheat on any deal in the future,” Samore said.

Samore does not agree that the US should not be involved in talks with Iran.

According to Samore, Washington made the fatal mistake of agreeing to negotiate with North Korea without insisting that Kim Jong Il restore the suspension on the production of plutonium.

He believes that as a consequence of this error, the North Koreans have great incentive to drag their feet while they strengthen their nuclear weapons capabilities.

“In the case of Iran I think it’s essential that Washington condition any willingness to negotiate with Iran in a multi-lateral context on the restoration of the [nuclear] suspension. That has to be the essential basic condition for the US talking to Iran.”

There was a question and answer session after Samore’s presentation, and faculty, students, and others in the community raised a variety of issues.

One student asked about the potential role of Israel in stopping the Iranian threat, while another asked more about President Ahmadinejad’s role.

An Iranian-American man in the crowd raised concerns of Iranian nationalism as central to the issue for Iranians, and he questioned why the US continued to build its nuclear arsenal despite its opposition to nuclear proliferation in other countries.

“The Iranian government has been very successful in portraying the nuclear issue as a nationalist issue. When the Iranian government argues about its need for developing the nuclear capability, they don’t justify it in terms of ‘we must have nuclear weapons’; they say ‘we must have advanced nuclear technologies in order to support the generation of energy,’” Samore answered.

He reiterated the significance of the Iranian nuclear issue. “I think [it] unfortunately could get a lot more tense if the Iranians don’t back down, and there’ll be a lot more pressure on the US and the Western countries to do something to stop Iran,” he said.

The lecture was heavily attended by Sam Nunn Fellows, Ph.D. students in science and engineering who are also concentrating on International Affairs.

“[The lecture series] gives you a broader view of what’s going on in the world than what you learn in your basic engineering classes...I think it’s interesting to see what experts think about the events that shape the world around us,” said Patrick Blitgen, an Aerospace Engineering graduate student.

“Industry is asking us to be more aware...I think it’s great of the school to put [these lectures] together…I’m from Argentina. The U.S. killed our nuclear program in the late ‘80s, and I remember hearing [what] a lot of people were saying, how hypocritical it was, and it all resonated a little bit [today]…of course we were not hardliners, but we had invaded the British…we got a pretty bad rep in the international community....I think this school has to do more [discussions like these],” said Santiago Balestrini, an Aerospace Engineering graduate student.

“I’m particularly interested in the Iran situation because for the last year and a half I’ve been minoring in international affairs and focusing my studies on the Iranian situation… since President Ahmadinejad got elected, I’ve been trying to find out more…because…it’s very hard to find anything published about Ahmadinejad,” said Shelby Highsmith, a Mechanical Engineering graduate student.

“I really appreciated getting [Samore’s] take on…how important [Ahmadinejad] is in the nuclear program considering he does seem to be kind of a wack-job,” she said.

“It was a really interesting seminar. We need more scientists and engineers in the government who know what they’re doing [within the international diplomatic context],” Highsmith said.

Samore seemed to have enjoyed visiting Tech.

“My trip has gone very well. I’ve really had a great opportunity to meet people...and this talk was terrific. I’m very happy with the attendance; I got a lot of very good questions; I wish it could have gone on a little longer,” Samore said.

The next SEROD lecture is on Feb. 2 titled ‘The European-China Engagement: Implications for the United States’ by David Shambaugh, a professor of Political Science at George Washington University.

For more information on SEROD and CISTP visit their website at http://www.cistp.gatech.edu.